Predictable Surprises

Overview

Most of the most significant disruptions to our food systems, such as the accelerating loss of global soil fertility, political upheaval, massive storms or floods, pandemics, economic bubbles, supply system failures, technological disasters, crop failures, or mass extinctions of species, were predicted by civil society actors far in advance. We refer to these events as “Predictable Surprises”, as they arise from foreseeable patterns and come with relatively predictable risks. 

Predictable Surprises are sudden and extraordinarily disruptive events that seem to come out of nowhere with the potential to change the fundamental dynamics of societies, whether locally, regionally or globally. Such world-changing events seem to catch everyone by surprise, even though later analysis shows that civil society understood and foresaw their roots and patterns. Our perspective for examining these “predictable surprises” offers the opportunity to better anticipate and strategize for future disruptions.

FERTILE GROUND

Tools for imagining a shared food future